It sounded fantastic,’ she says enthusiastically. ‘You could get as involved as you wanted’ in so many interesting projects underway in the Centre led by Professor (now Sir) Roy Anderson. Initially, she was appointed a statistics lecturer at University of Edinburgh, where she taught final year ‘inference’ – [working out how you gain insights from data using statistics]. Nous publions des outils de partage vers les réseaux sociaux. Ainsi, lorsque vous consultez un tel contenu placé sur nos supports, un cookie de l’outil de partage correspondant peut être enregistré sur votre terminal. Ever the slightly scary statistician, she says, ‘It’s hard to believe there won’t be a few surprises out there. You can’t know what future variants will look like.’

She explains, ‘You can always come up with scenarios where there are fewer cases and fewer deaths and there are trade-offs to be made.’ But her move to Oxford was ‘transformative’, ‘life changing’. She says, ‘I found what I really wanted to do....there was problem solving, getting an answer, and it is worthwhile. It had impact – often immediately so.’French Laund Register data, that excludes lochs, ponds, glaciers > 1 km² (0.386 sqmi or 247 acres) an river estuaries. The Rolls-Royce of natural mineral waters is considered by many to be Chateldon (1,882mg/l), which has been bottled in the Auvergne in central France since 1650. It was the favoured draught of Louis XIV, who had it brought to Versailles by mule. Just 700,000 bottles are released each year. It is cool and lush, with a delicate fizz that lines the inside of the mouth very luxuriously. She was to return though. And, in 2018, she became Professor of Applied Statistics at Oxford. From September 2022 she will be the Head of Department. But she has remained a part of the Imperial team and has students at both institutions. It was hugely helpful,’ she says. ‘Going through inference in such detail made sure I really knew it.’

It was challenging but super-interesting,’ she says earnestly. But isn’t Maths very male dominated?Pour certains, elles ont des qualités supérieures aux eaux de SPA qui connaissent la célébrité dans toute l’Europe.Pierre Laval, dans les années 30-40 tentera de leur donner un nouvel essor sans y réussir, peut-être parce que rattrapé par l’histoire, comme chef de gouvernement d’une période difficile, celle de la France du Maréchal Pétain.Aujourd’hui, l’eau minérale de Châteldon, a conservé sa renommée auprès des plus grandes tables de France et du monde, et continue d’être distribuée par le groupe Castel. Imagine if the death rate had been that of SARS...Professor Donnelly blanches at the thought, ‘It’s extremely difficult to control transmission if the transmitter doesn’t yet have symptoms.’ Castle Châteldon wis ance awned bi Prime Meenister Pierre Laval. It remains the prime landmark o the veelage. Châteldon is kent for its naturally carbonatit mineral watter. It wis the first mineral watter exploitit in Fraunce an transportit bi bottles tae the Court o Louis XIV in Versailles. This water is uised for its diuretic and digestive properties. It is an aw rich in potassium, sodium an fluorine. In Fraunce, ane finds the watter o Châteldon in the lairge hotels an restaurants, an in delicatessens. In 1650, the first doctor o the keeng, Guy-Crescent Fagon, praised the virtues o Châteldon to Louis XIV.

She adds, ‘And who could have predicted there would have been a vaccine less than a year after SARS-CoV-2 was identified? It was astounding. We are extremely fortunate to live in a country which is able to offer the vaccine to everyone who wants it. Not everyone has that option.’ They were both completely new pathogens...In each case we made the best of the data we had, but there were inevitable uncertainties. As you extrapolate, there are more uncertaintiesWhile Professor Anderson was her epidemiological mentor, Sir David Cox became her statistical mentor. She was definitely not in Indiana any more. You try to work out, if you do X, then that will happen, if you do Y, then that will happen, but many factors can’t go into the model.’ They were both completely new pathogens,’ she says. ‘In each case, we made the best of the data we had, but there were inevitable uncertainties. As you extrapolate, there are more uncertainties....’ Does that mean they are a waste of time? Not at all, she adds, ‘Some are useful. Just because it’s “wrong” – in the sense of simplifying reality – doesn’t mean it cannot give useful insight.’